AFL Finals Week 1, Tips and Previews
Port vs. Cats
August 27th
Geelong will look to rectify the heartbreaking post-siren Round 23 loss against Melbourne when it travels to Adelaide to face Port Adelaide.
It was the story of the week as Geelong looked poised to finish on spot and book in a home final with a commanding 45-point lead half-way through the third term against the Demons.
The wheels fell off in the last term and now the Cats must re-group and find a way to butter up against a Port Adelaide squad who put its hand up as a genuine flag contender courtesy of a dogged two-point win over Western Bulldogs.
Cats defender Tom Stewart will be sorely missed in this game given how dangerous the Port Adelaide forward line can be on its day.
But Port Adelaide have an injury concern of their own with Mitch Georgiades in doubt with a hamstring complaint.
His omission would probably cancel out the advantage Port’s front half have with Stewart not being down back to quell the ball movement inside 50 for Port.
Geelong already boasts a big win over Port earlier this year and look the value in this one.
SUGGESTED BET:
Cats head to head at $2.20
Sydney vs. GWS
August 28th
The Battle of Bridge makes its way to Tasmania when the loyal sons of Sydney march into UTAS to face arch-rival Greater Western Sydney.
The Swans capped off their season with a thumping 87-point trouncing of Gold Coast as Buddy Franklin crept closer to 1000 career goals with six majors.
Meanwhile, the Giants scored victory in arm-wrestling with Carlton thanks to a vintage display from veteran midfielder Callan Ward who kicked 2 goals and had 28 disposals helping his side to a 14-point win.
Both teams split the honours this year when the Giants scored an upset victory against Sydney at the SCG only to have the favour returned by the Swans at Metricon Stadium in Round 18.
Bragging rights are tough to pick here, but the Giants at the line looks the way to go.
SUGGESTED BET:
Giants +7.5 at $1.90
Demons vs. Lions
August 28th
The attacking flair of Brisbane meets the defensive lock, stock and barrel of Melbourne when the two go head to head in the first qualifying final of the 2021 finals series.
Melbourne took out the minor premiership on behalf of Max Gawn’s post-siren heroics which sealed off a famous comeback victory against Geelong down at GMHBA, while the Lions booked in a double chance after defeating West Coast at the Gabba.
Simon Goodwin does have the edge on Chris Fagan this year after guiding his men to a 22-point victory back in Round 12 where Christian Petracca will likely poll the three Brownlow votes.
The Lions did have a slight form dip before rallying towards the back end of the year, but their form line has to be questioned given they defeated to out of form teams in the Eagles and Magpies.
The Demons’ form has more depth to it and, as such, look the value in this game.
SUGGESTED BET:
Demons -6.5 at $1.90
Bulldogs vs. Bombers
August 29th
The first of two elimination finals in Tasmania ensues when Western Bulldogs travel over Bass Straight to meet Essendon in a game that will see the season come to an end for the loser.
Western Bulldogs enters this game off a form dip having lost its last three games to finish the season and miss the top four by a whisker, while the Bombers scorched into the top eight with a strong end to the season.
Essendon also boast a recent win over the Doggies having despatched of them by 13 points in Round 21 as Peter Wright kicked a career best seven goals.
The Bulldogs were slightly inaccurate that day kicking 12.12.84 to the Bombers 15.7.97 and they did start an outright favourite.
Being without Josh Bruce has given Luke Beveridge an unnecessary headache to deal with leading into finals, but the Dogs are a proven finals team.
Essendon brandy about a long record of having not won a final in over a decade which may prove to haunt them again here.
