AFL Best Bets, April 28
Essendon vs. Geelong
Head-To-Head
With the Cats’ current form, $1.43 seems reasonable against an Essendon side still reeling from their Anzac Day loss.
Geelong was unstoppable against Sydney in the grand final re-match last Saturday night, booting 20 goals to five and running out 93-point winners. The old firm has worked its way into the season magnificently, with Patrick Dangerfield (31 disposals), Cam Guthrie (24) and Tom Stweart (23) all finding plenty of it. At the same time, Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins finished the job with five goals apiece.
The Bombers, who sit in the fourth spot on the ladder, blew a five-goal lead against Collingwood on Tuesday and combined with their five-day turnaround, we’re expecting the Cats to double down on the Bombers’ pain.
Suggested Bet:
Cats win at $1.42
Sydney vs. GWS
Handicap
Given the one-sided nature of most games this weekend, it hasn’t been easy to find a valuable line, but we’ve settled on GWS and their ability to take it up to their fellow New South Welshmen.
While the Giants haven’t set the AFL world on fire with their two wins and four losses this season, they are yet to be blown out of the water by any of their opposition. This includes last week’s 21-point loss to Brisbane.
The Swans are coming off one of the worst losses under the reign of John Longmire, going down to Geelong by 93 points at GMHBA Stadium. Dane Rampe, Lance Franklin and Tom McCartin are all expected to train this week but remain doubtful.
With that being the case, and with Tom Green returning for the Giants, we’re expecting a closer result than the market suggests.
Suggested Bet:
GWS Giants (+24.5) at $1.89
Adelaide vs. Collingwood
Total Points
Clearly the match of the round, the Crows will try to improve their four-game winning streak when they host the equal-second premiership favourites at Adelaide Oval.
Both sides have found the scoreboard relatively easily this season, ranking fourth and sixth for points kicked.
The Adelaide forward line of Taylor Walker (14), Izak Rankine (13), Darcy Fogarty (13) and Josh Rachele (10) have led the charge for the Crows, while Brody Mihocek leads a share-at-all-costs operation at the Pies.
This is expected to be a Sunday afternoon blockbuster, and plenty of scoreboard action should excite the SA locals.
Suggested Bet:
+171.5 total points at $1.85
West Coast vs. Carlton
Anytime Goal
The star midfielder has returned to the Carlton engine room in nothing short of spectacular fashion, shaking off his back injury with 38 disposals against the Saints after 25 against Adelaide.
And they’ve both been in losses. Imagine what he can do against an embattled Eagles side?
While he’s only found the goals once in his two games, Walsh should get plenty of opportunities to meander towards the forward 50 and drive home (at least) one six-pointer in a big win over the Eagles.
Suggested Bet:
Sam Walsh at $2.38
Brisbane vs. Fremantle
Same Game Multi
The Lions have been low flying since their Round Three loss to the Bulldogs, having worked their way into the sixth spot on the ladder with wins against Collingwood (33 points), North Melbourne (75) and GWS (21).
While Sean Darcy and Luke Jackson present a challenge in the ruck department, there’s no doubting the Lions’ midfield of Neale, Dunkley, and McCluggage will find plenty of it, especially for Neale, who was held to just 20 last weekend.
There’s not much more to it; expect the Lions to win and to win well.
- Brisbane to win 40+
- L. Neale 25+ disposals
- L. Ryan 25+ disposals
- E. Hipwood 2+ goals
