AFL Best Bets, September 30

Round 4: Brisbane defeated Collingwood by 33 points at The Gabba

Round 23: Collingwood lost to Brisbane by 24 points at Marvel Stadium

The greatest day on the Australian sporting calendar is upon us, with more than 95k supporters set to pack the MCG for this year’s finale between Collingwood and Brisbane.

With big games come big questions. Can the Pies hold onto their grasp as the #1 ranked team, or did they peak too early? Can the Lions overcome an MCG hoodoo that has resulted in 14 losses from their past 15 games? Can Jordan De Goey back up his scintillating preliminary final? Or can anyone stop the newly minted dual Brownlow Medallist, Lachie Neale?

While Collingwood has occupied the top spot on the ladder every week, bar one since Round 7, it’s safe to say the Lions have had the wood over their grand final opponents this season with victory in both match-ups. While neither game was at the ‘G – they haven’t played each other there since 2018 – Chris Fagan’s men will take great confidence from their ability to score on the Pies’ defenders with a total of 37 goals.

However, the Bet Nation market suggests punters believe the likes of Nick Daicos, Josh Daicos, Scott Pendlebury, Darcy Moore and Jordan De Goey can turn the tables on the Lions, with their two previous finals against Melbourne and GWS preparing the Pies for another slog-fest.  

If Craig McRae’s chargers are to salute for the first time since 2010, they must do so without vice-captain Taylor Adams (hamstring) and key forward Dan McStay (knee) after they were both ruled out. Billy Frampton and John Noble could replace McStay, with the former certainly more a like-for-like player.

As for the Lions, Jack Payne will need to prove he has recovered from an ankle concern that forced him out of last week’s preliminary final win over Carlton. Darcy Gardiner replaced Payne with great effect and will keep his place should Payne fail his fitness test.

The Lions’ ability to score will be giving the Pies’ defenders nightmares this week, with Joe Daniher, Charlie Cameron, Lincoln McCarthy, Eric Hipwood and Cam Rayner capable of putting the game beyond doubt in a short amount of time.

While the Lions certainly have their issues playing away from The Gabba, they’ve won their previous six games against the Pies. And having defeated Melbourne at the ‘G in last year’s semi-final, they could be in line to repeat the dose from 20 years ago when these two sides last met in a grand final.

If it’s a slog, the Pies should prevail. If not, the price for the Lions looks mighty tasty.