AFL Futures Tracker, 2023 Premiership Winner
Best Bet: Collingwood
$3.50
It wasn’t all that long ago that the black and white army were as vocal as they’ve been since the 2018 preliminary final massacre against Richmond. You know, the one where Mason Cox delivered the biggest knockout blow from an American since Mike Tyson was in his prime.
The Magpies were cruising at the top of the ladder with a 16-2 record, two games clear of the chasing pack, and they were almost unbackable favourites to win their first flag since 2010.
Fast-forward five weeks, and they’re still at the top of the tree, but with far more flaws than first thought after suffering losses to Carlton (17), Hawthorn (32), and Brisbane (24) over their past five games.
Injuries to Nick Daicos, Darcy Moore, and Nathan Murphy tested their depth for the first time this year, but the latter two are expected to return for the first week of finals. As for Daicos, he’s increased his training load since he injured his knee, and the Pies are hopeful that he will rejoin the team in two weeks.
Collingwood’s qualifying final against Melbourne at the MCG will likely dictate how far they will go this season and whether they’ve officially snapped out of their recent form slump. And any extra time to help Daicos’ recovery is a huge plus.
Next Best: Brisbane
$3.75
Is it finally Lion time?
After knocking on the premiership door every year since 2019, Chris Fagan and his squad of northerners have arguably their best chance to feature in the season’s final game after squeezing into second spot on the ladder in Round 21.
This means they will host Port Adelaide at the Gabba in their first final, and if they continue their incredible unbeaten run at home, they will then host a preliminary final. In a perfect world, the Lions don’t need to see another venue until Grand Final Day.
From a personnel perspective, the Lions will watch Lincoln McCarthy’s calf strain closely but are unlikely to see Jack Gunston or Daniel Rich in the first final.
While Charlie Cameron was the only Lion selected in the 2023 All-Australian team, there’s no doubt the likes of Lachie Neale and Harris Andrews will have a point to prove come September.
Don’t sleep on the Lions, especially if they can turn the Power off in Week 1.
Best Value: Melbourne
$4.00
The Dees at $4? Yes, please.
Simon Goodwin’s 2021 premiers enter finals as the best value available in the market and will skyrocket in favouritism should they upset the ladder leaders at the ‘G.
Following their two-point loss to GWS in Round 16, questions were asked about Melbourne, but they’ve since pieced together seven wins from their last eight games. This includes victories over Brisbane, St Kilda, Sydney, Richmond, and Adelaide – not exactly the cellar-dwellers.
Most impressively was Goodwin’s ability to make the hard call, dropping Brodie Grundy and leaving Max Gawn one-out in the ruck, sending Christian Petracca forward and giving more midfield minutes to Kozzie Pickett.
Recent injuries to Harrison Petty and Jake Melksham will force Goodwin’s hand again, but there’s little doubt he will again find a way to score when needed.
Watch the Dees’ qualifying final against the Pies closely because a grand finalist is coming out of it.
Best Roughie: Carlton
$10.00
Who would’ve ever thought we’d include Carlton in the premiership conversation?
Less than three months ago, they were on the front, middle and back page of every newspaper in the country after suffering eight losses from nine games from Round 5-13. It was a mess.
What’s transpired since has been nothing short of remarkable as Michael Voss led the Blues out of the doldrums into a nine-game winning streak. We’ll mention their Round 24 loss to the Giants, but only one team in that game had anything to play for.
Back-to-back Coleman Medallist Charlie Curnow has been at the forefront of the Blues’ revival, franking his 64-goal win last season with 78. They are far less reliant on Patrick Cripps in the midfield, with Adam Cerra, Blake Acres, Sam Docherty, and Sam Walsh taking more responsibility.
Most importantly, the Blues are healthy after Mitch McGovern, Cerra, and Walsh made it through Round 24 unscathed.
A first-up clash with Sydney at the MCG, the $10 on offer for Carlton could be well and truly crunched in two weeks.
