AFL Best Bets, May 5
Carlton vs. Brisbane
Head-To-Head
The only reason the Lions aren’t favourites heading into their Round Eight clash with Carlton is that they are playing at Marvel Stadium. Their Melbourne-based demons will continue to haunt them until they can prove they can win away from home.
From a form perspective, they couldn’t be going much better, with their 48-point win over Fremantle making it four straight victories.
While the Blues returned to some form with a 108-point thrashing of the Eagles, it’s too early to say they’re back, considering their past three wins have come at the expense of GWS (10 points), North Melbourne (23) and West Coast.
Suggested Bet:
Lions to win at $1.96
Gold Coast vs. Melbourne
Handicap
This line should be considered a gift from the wagering gods. While the Suns have been impressive over the past two rounds with wins against North Melbourne (43) and Richmond (24), in no way should 16.5 be considered the line between these two sides.
The Dees have had their own victories over a much more inspired Richmond (18) and North (90) over the same fortnight but still possess a midfield of Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Max Gawn that should monster a Touk-less Suns.
Suggested Bet:
Melbourne (-16.5) at $1.90
Collingwood vs. Sydney
Totals
Despite the loss, it was heartening to see the Swans with some sort of forward line over the weekend as Lance Franklin (3 goals), Logan McDonald (3) and Tom Papley (1) all occupied the same airspace. It resulted in 16 goals and a total of 106 points, their fourth score over 100 for the season.
The Pies were well-held by Adelaide’s defense with 59 points, but they shouldn’t have such issues against a Swans backline that allowed 100+ in their last two games.
Suggested Bet:
+171.5 total points at $1.85
Port Adelaide vs. Essendon
25+ Disposals
He may have only recorded 25+ once so far this season, but the former Port Adelaide captain is back, with his 30 disposals the difference between the Power and Saints over the weekend.
The man himself said that he needed to work his way back into form after a slow start to the year, and as Tom Hawkins has at the Cattery, we’re happy to take the $2.10 on offer to find out if he’s reached that point.
Suggested Bet:
Travis Boak at $2.10
Richmond vs. West Coast
Same Game Multi
Without getting too carried away, Richmond should absolutely tear West Coast apart on Saturday afternoon when the two sides meet at the MCG.
The Tigers have been terrible, to say the least, but they’re coming up against an Eagles outfit that reportedly has 26 players to choose from, such is their injury crisis.
The Tigers won both games between the teams last year by an average of 72 points. They should and will likely flick the switch in front of the MCG crowd.
- Richmond to win 40+
- Cumberland 2+ goals
- Short 25+ disposals
- Kelly 30+ disposals
