AFL Tips and Previews, Round One
Richmond vs. Carlton
March 16th
The 2023 AFL season officially kicks off when Richmond and Carlton do battle at the MCG on Thursday night. The Tigers, who have won seven of the last Round One encounters between the two sides, enter this edition as $1.70 favourites with Bet Nation.
There is a buzz about the finals chances of both sides this season, with Richmond topping up their midfield with the acquisition of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper over the off-season. Trent Cotchin will make way for the pair with a role up forward, but they await the availability of Dion Prestia after injuring his peck during the pre-season.
Carlton will be without Sam Walsh indefinitely but will hit the ground running with a fit George Hewett and their latest recruit, Blake Acres.
While Michael Voss’ outlook is promising for the notoriously lacklustre Blues in 2023, their record against a Tigers side that’s gone all-in on a premiership this season means we’re taking the $1.70 on offer.
Suggested Bet:
Richmond to win at $1.70
Geelong vs. Collingwood
March 17th
The reigning premiers will unfurl their flag before taking on Collingwood in a Friday night blockbuster.
The Cats weren’t overly concerned with their 46-point pre-season loss to the Lions as they look to continue their 16-game winning streak from last season and with Patrick Dangerfield taking the reins.
They’ll be without Jack Henry and Sam Menegola, while Tom Hawkins and Mitch Duncan must both prove their fitness.
The Pies were a revelation in 2022 as they made their way to a preliminary final against the Swans and only strengthened their team with the additions of Tom Mitchell, Dan McStay and Billy Frampton. Patrick Lipinski injured his shoulder in their pre-season clash with Hawthorn and won’t play until the second half of the season.
It’s impossible to tip against the reigning premiers after their off-season from heaven, but expect the Pies to make a game of it.
Suggested Bet:
Geelong 1-39 at $2.10
North Melbourne vs. West Coast
March 18th
North Melbourne and West Coast will be entering the 2023 season knowing that things couldn’t have been much worse last year. They both won just two games and finished in the bottom two spots on the ladder.
The Roos, who welcomed Alastair Clarkson in as senior coach, will go through a rebuild under the master coach, and it started with a 58-point loss to the Dogs in their pre-season game. Ben Cunnington is back after his battle with cancer, while Harry Sheezel and Griffin Logue will be two new faces.
Like the Roos, the Eagles will face tough times this season but will like their chances this week with a fit Andrew Gaff, Luke Shuey and Elliot Yeo. However, both Jack Darling and Nic Naitanui are under injury clouds.
Suggested Bet:
North Melbourne to win at $1.85
Port Adelaide vs. Brisbane
March 18th
Port Adelaide is looking to bounce back from their disappointing 11th-place finish last season, and it all starts with a Round One clash against a premiership favourite.
The Power made moves over the trade period with the addition of Jason Horne-Francis and Junior Rioli to their forward half, while they can expect players like Connor Rozee and Zak Butters to continue their upward trajectory.
The Lions were all the rage over the off-season, resulting in a 46-point demolition of Geelong in their practice match.
Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft will add much-need depth to their midfield, while Jack Gunston will provide another target up forward alongside Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron. The Lions are here for one reason only this season, and it all starts with an away win against the Power.
Suggested Bet:
Z. Butters anytime goal scorer at $2
Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs
March 18th
In a game between two top-eight fancies, the Demons and Bulldogs are coming off impressive victories over the pre-season.
The Demons are looking to hit the ground running and proved as much when they defeated Richmond by 50 points. Brodie Grundy joins Max Gawn in the most talented and imposing one-two ruck punch in the league, while Lachie Hunter will slot straight onto a wing.
The Dogs’ midfield excelled in their 58-point win over the Kangaroos, with Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae, and Bailey Smith all expecting additional minutes following Josh Dunkley’s departure.
This certainly has the potential to be the game of the round, but we’re sticking with the Dees and their balanced outfit first up.
Suggested Bet:
Melbourne to win at $1.52
Gold Coast vs. Sydney
March 18th
Despite taking significant steps forward last year, the Suns were no match for the Giants in their pre-season game and went down by 45 points.
Ben King is the most prominent inclusion – perhaps for any team – as he joins Mabior Chol and Levi Casboult in a three-headed behemoth of a forward line. Touk Miller will carry the midfield, but they’ll be without Lachie Weller and Brandon Ellis due to injury.
The 2022 runner-up mean business after destroying Carlton by 43 points in their pre-season warm-up.
Errol Gulden and Chad Warner are looking to take the next step and become elite players of the competition, while they will fly the flag in the ruck while Tom Hickey recovers from an injured hamstring.
There’s no doubt the Suns can push for finals, but the Swans are primed to kick-start their redemption campaign in style.
Suggested Bet:
E. Gulden anytime goal scorer at $1.67
GWS vs. Adelaide
March 19th
Another game that is potentially closer than the market suggests, GWS will enter their match-up with Adelaide as $1.65 favourites.
The Giants will rely on internal improvement this season, but signs were positive as they defeated the Suns by 45 points. Tom Green starred with 34 touches, while Lachie Whitfield will likely return to his preferred role off half-back.
The Crows are coming off a dominant 59-point victory over the Eagles, where Rory Laird and new captain Jordan Dawson led from the front. Ben Keays will play across half-forward, while Darcy Fogarty and Izak Rankine should take their forward line to another level.
Suggested Bet:
Adelaide to win at $2.25
Hawthorn vs. Essendon
March 19th
Two sides who aren’t expected to feature at the money end of the season, Essendon, are currently trading at $1.62 against Hawthorn.
Sam Mitchell’s Hawks could be in for a long season as the rebuild continues, with Tom Mitchell, Jack Gunston, and Jaegar O’Meara moved on to other clubs. Lloyd Meek will provide a solid first ruck option alongside Ned Reeves, while James Sicily was an inspired choice as a replacement skipper for Ben McEvoy.
The Bombers had their own off-season to remember for different reasons, as Brad Scott replaced Ben Rutten as senior coach. Scott will change how the Bombers defend, with Andrew McGrath moving to a half-back role where they can utilise his foot skills.
This is a rivalry from the glory days, and you can expect the Bombers to add another notch to their belt this weekend.
Suggested Bet:
Essendon to win at $1.62
St Kilda vs Fremantle
March 19th
Four games separated these two sides in 2022, with the Dockers getting a taste of finals while the Saints blew their chances and finished one game outside the eight.
Despite downing the Bombers by 35 points two weeks ago in ross Lyon’s first official outing as senior coach for the second time, the Saints have been ravaged by injury with Seb Ross, Max King, Jack Billings and Zak Jones among a host of outs. Tim Membrey will be a test with knee soreness.
The Dockers were convincing in their 31-point win over the Power, with Nathan Fyfe potentially answering their scoring prayers as the dual Brownlow Medallist continues his career up forward. Luke Jackson will greatly assist Sean Darcy in the ruck and another target in the forward 50.
Injuries are taking too much of a toll on the Saints, and the Dockers are simply too slick.
