AFL Futures Tracker, 2023 Brownlow Medal
It’s mid-February, we’re just one week away from the AFL pre-season kicking off, and there’s a whole lot of value in the current Brownlow Medal Futures market.
We’re going to start with the polarising news that neither Patrick Cripps (Carlton) nor Lachie Neale (Brisbane) has made the list. Only six players have gone back-to-back in the Brownlow since the award was first handed out in 1924, and five occurred in the first 50 years. Only Robert Harvey (St Kilda) has achieved the feat within the past 49 years when he won in 1997-98, and it’s for this reason that Cripps’ current quote of $8 looks unders.
As for Neale, there’s a sense that his vote polling-best could take a hit with the emergence of Hugh McCluggage and the recruitment of Josh Dunkley from the Western Bulldogs. While the 2022 runner-up will still be a star of the competition, his $9 quote doesn’t appeal as much as the others on the list.
With the housekeeping behind us, let’s look at those with a red-hot chance of taking home Charlie in 2023.
Best Bet: Clayton Oliver
$10
Is 2023 the year Clayton finally wins that elusive Brownlow? The Melbourne star finished equal-fourth with 25 votes in 2022 after polling 31 and finishing behind Ollie Wines (PA) and Marcus Bontempelli (WB) in the Demons’ premiership year of 2021.
Oliver is the king of consistency, averaging over 31 disposals in the past two seasons and 25+ every year since 2017. His contested work is the best in the AFL, and he has averaged six tackles a game since his debut.
Now a genuine leader of that club, if Melbourne can live up to expectations and secure a top-four finish, Oliver will have every chance to hang Charlie around his next by the season’s end. And we’re happy to take double figures to find out.
Next Best: Touk Miller
$12
There’s little doubt that Touk Miller is the people’s champion. The Gold Coast midfielder is quietly unassuming, works as hard as any player in the AFL and is loyal to the Suns – it doesn’t get much better than that.
After taking his game to another level in 2021 and averaging 32 disposals and seven tackles, Touk reaped the benefit of consistently strong form with 27 votes and third place in last year’s Brownlow.
The Suns are a team on the rise under Stuart Dew, and their continual improvement will rely heavily on Touk’s output. If the Suns push for a debut finals berth – which we expect they will – Touk will be at the forefront of their run and right under the umpires’ noses.
Best Value: Andrew Brayshaw
$15
How is the Fremantle midfielder $15? We love it, and we’ll take it.
Andrew Brayshaw is another player whose game has reached another level in recent years. The 23yo has an incredible ability to find the ball, averaging 29 touches a game over the last two seasons.
With Nat Fyfe’s injuries and David Mundy’s retirement at the end of 2022, Brayshaw is the leader of the Dockers’ midfield and receives incredible service from Sean Darcy in the ruck.
He polled 25 votes in last year’s Brownlow count, with 20 coming in the first 13 rounds. This tells us two things: the umpires look for him, and if he can find consistency throughout the whole season, he will be right in the hunt on Brownlow night.
Best Roughie: Connor Rozee
$41
There were several options for the Best Roughie, but we’ve landed on the Port Adelaide livewire following his 14-vote performance in 2022.
After playing his first three seasons predominantly as a forward, Rozee entered the Port midfield last year and excelled alongside the likes of Ollie Wines and Travis Boak.
12 of his 14 votes came from R14-23 as he acclimatised to his new position and role. Midfielders who kick goals are priceless when it comes to this award, so a dabble on Rozee at $41 could be the best investment you make this year.
