AFL Round 7, April 24
Essendon vs. Collingwood
April 25th
It’s one of the most anticipated match-ups on the AFL calendar. There’s no doubt the 2024 edition of the Anzac Day game between Essendon and Collingwood is as enticing as any recent memory.
The Magpies, currently $1.44 favourites with Bet Nation, have seemingly recaptured some of their premiership-winning form with three consecutive wins following a 0-3 start to the season. Craig McRae’s men have defeated the Lions (20), Hawks (5) and Port Adelaide (42) in recent weeks – the latter being a comeback victory littered with the elite pressure and desperation punters have come to expect from the reigning premiers.
The Bombers have been similarly frustrating for tipsters so far this season. While they’ve been defensive liabilities against the likes of the Swans and Power, the Bombers have defied market expectations with crucial away wins over the Dogs and Crows. With Zach Merrett (30.7) and Nic Martin (31.3) leading from the front and ranking in the top 10 for disposals, the Bombers have already managed four wins from their six games.
Collingwood has won 17 of the 28 Anzac Day clashes since 1995, and we’ll tentatively back them to hold out their rivals in a close one.
Suggested Bet:
Magpies to win at $1.44
GWS vs. Brisbane
April 25th
An Anzac Day clash with so much on the line for the ‘other’ 2023 grand finalist, the Brisbane Lions will enter their meeting with the Giants as $2 outsiders.
It’s been a rough start to the season for Chris Fagan’s squad, losing four of their six games and going winless at the Gabba. Despite leading Geelong throughout the third quarter on Saturday night, the inaccurate Lions cost themselves a much-needed four points with 4.13 (37) in the slippery conditions. Oscar McInerney (concussion) was sorely missed throughout the night and will be replaced by Darcy Fort.
The Giants received a Blues-inspired reality check in their Round 6 clash, suffering their first loss of the season and falling to third spot on the ladder. The most concerning news for the Orange Tsunami is the one-week suspension to captain Toby Greene. However, after overcoming a striking charge, Jesse Hogan has been freed to play.
Flip of the coin considering the importance of the result for the Lions and their finals prospects.
Suggested Bet:
C. Rayner anytime goal scorer at $1.65
Geelong vs. Carlton
April 27th
It’s been a flawless start to the season for the undefeated Cats, and they’ll look to maintain their hold on top spot when they host the fourth-ranked Blues on Saturday afternoon.
The $1.82 for the Cats appears slightly overs at this stage, with Chris Scott’s men recording a 26-point victory over the Lions at the Gabba and making it six wins on the bounce. The result was clearly soured by Tom Stewart’s concussion – an injury that will keep him sidelined for this one. Mark Blicavs could be thrown into defense to cover Stewart as they attempt to stem the Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay show.
The star pair combined for six goals in the Blues’ 19-point victory over the Giants, taking their individual tallies to 20 (Curnow) and 16 (McKay) for the year. Sam Walsh continued his blistering return from injury with another 35 disposals alongside captain Cripps’ 39. Jacob Weitering (quad) and Zac Williams (Achilles) are in doubt for the Cats, adding to Michael Voss’ defensive woes.
I’m happy to take the Cats on the home deck, but they’ll need a whole-team defensive effort against the Twin Towers.
Suggested Bet:
Geelong 1-39 at $2.30
Fremantle vs. Western Bulldogs
April 27th
Can the Dockers bounce back from their worst loss in years? At $1.80, the market seems to think so.
It was a dark day for the Purple Haze on Saturday as they lowered their colours to the tune of 37 points in the Western Derby. However, Justin Longmuir has options at the selection table, with Heath Chapman, Michael Frederick (hamstring) and Sam Switkowski (concussion) all expected to be available. Once again, the Sean Darcy/Luke Jackson ruck combo will capture everyone’s attention after the former’s return last week.
The Dogs, who leapfrogged the Dockers into eighth position on the ladder, snapped a two-game losing streak with a dominant 60-point triumph over the Saints. It was the type of performance we know the Dogs are capable of, but whether they can do it again remains to be seen. Star midfielder Tom Liberatore is set to return, making the $2.04 on offer a very enticing prospect.
