AFL Best Bets, August 18
Fremantle vs. Port Adelaide
Head-To-Head
Has the pressure at Alberton disappeared?
The atmosphere is far more relaxed this week following the Power’s first win in over a month and Ken Hinkley’s two-year contract extension. The sense of calm that comes with less media scrutiny should result in a much-improved Port outfit, and opposition teams would be wary.
After four consecutive losses – on the back of 13 wins – Port Adelaide returned to form on Sunday afternoon with a dominant 51-point victory over GWS. Butters, Houston, Rozee, Horne-Francis, and Wines – all the stars hit their straps.
Now they’ve snapped a run of losses against top eight-quality teams, expect the Power to try and steal second spot on the ladder back with a strong performance against the 14th-placed Dockers.
Suggested Bet:
Port Adelaide to win at $1.57
Richmond vs. North Melbourne
Handicap
For the first time this season, we’re backing North Melbourne to beat the handicapper and take Richmond to within four goals at the MCG.
Mini McQualter’s honeymoon as interim coach is well and truly over, with the Tigers losing their last three games by an average of 41 points. The most concerning aspect of Richmond’s game plan is their inability to stop opposition scoring, with Melbourne (+49), Western Bulldogs (+44) and St Kilda (+16) all smashing their average score.
North averages just 69 points for the season but given their improved performance against the Dees and Bombers over the past two weeks, they should outscore that and give the Tigers a real fright.
Suggested Bet:
North Melbourne (+24.5) at $1.87
Josh Kelly (GWS)
25+ Disposals
Anytime we see the star Giants midfielder at a price like this, we’re happy to back him in.
Josh Kelly may not have had his most dominant season at GWS, but that hasn’t stopped him from averaging 26.6 disposals from his 17 games. He’s hit the 25+ mark 13 times, including four of his past five games.
With the Giants facing Essendon in a must-win match on Saturday afternoon, Kelly’s chances of finding plenty of the ball are high in a head-to-head battle with Parish and Merrett.
Suggested Bet:
J. Kelly at $1.77
Melbourne vs. Hawthorn
Same Game Multi
While Hawthorn fans are deservedly buoyant about the future following surprise victories over the Magpies and Bulldogs in recent weeks, the Demons playing for a top two spot is on another level.
Melbourne believed they were robbed against Carlton on Saturday night (those pesky score reviews), and they will be hell-bent on making up for it against a team they defeated by 54 points earlier in the season.
Clayton Oliver is back and already in form, Christian Petracca is an issue for backlines everywhere and Max Gawn should have sole ruck duties once more after the failed Grundy experiment last week.
- Leg 1: Demons to win
- Leg 2: Under 167.5 points
- Leg 3: J. Sicily 25+ disposals
- Leg 4: C. Petracca 2+ goals
