AFL Tips and Previews, April 8-10
Adelaide vs. Fremantle
April 8th
Despite losing their last three games against the Dockers, Adelaide will enter their Round Four clash as $1.75 favourites following their 31-point Showdown victory over the Power.
After losing to the Giants and Tigers in the first two weeks when in a position to win both games, the Crows stuck with their rivals for the first three quarters before booting seven goals to two in Q4. Luke Pedlar will be sidelined due to suspension after kicking three goals.
Fremantle, who also recorded their first premiership points of the season, will breathe a sigh of relief after they ran out 41-point winners over the Eagles. Sean Darcy was back to his best in the ruck as Justin Longmuir found the best way to play him and Luke Jackson in the same team.
Suggested Bet:
S. Darcy anytime goal scorer at $2.10
Richmond vs. Western Bulldogs
April 8th
It’s been a mixed bag for the Tigers faithful in 2023, with Dimma’s boys dishing up a win, draw and loss to start the year. They’ll be confident heading into this one with the Bulldogs as Dustin Martin and Jacob Hopper return to a midfield that was outplayed and outclassed against Collingwood.
The Dogs steadied the ship in their own way in Round Three with an impressive 14-point victory over Brisbane. It’s hard to know what Dogs side will turn up every week, but they will welcome Taylor Duryea back after missing with illness.
The Tigers have had the wood over the Dogs recently, with an average winning margin of 33.7 from their past three.
Suggested Bet:
Richmond to win at $1.47
St Kilda vs. Gold Coast
April 8th
It would have been a while since St Kilda entered any game as $1.54 favourites, but that’s certainly the case as Ross Lyon’s undefeated team prepares to host Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium.
Perched on top of the AFL ladder after three rounds following their 18-point win over Essendon, the Saints boast the number one-ranked defence with an average of 55.7 points against.
The Suns will be looking to string two wins together after they accounted for the reigning premiers on the back of five Jack Lukosius goals. Sam Flanders will need to be replaced after injuring his knee, but Stuart Dew is otherwise looking at an unchanged line-up.
Suggested Bet:
St Kilda to win at $1.54
Sydney vs. Port Adelaide
April 8th
In one of the matches of the round, the Sydney Swans will head into their Round Four clash against the Power at the short quote of $1.34.
They’re certainly expected to bounce back in a big way after lowering their colours in a 50-point thumping to Melbourne. One of their main concerns is the form of Isaac Heeney, who managed just ten disposals last week and has kicked three goals for the year.
The Power went out yet again for Ken Hinkley’s men, and we’re not sure how they will flick the switch against a Swans side coming off a loss. Trent McKenzie is set to be recalled down back, but the form and health of Travis Boak is worrying, to say the least.
Suggested Bet:
C. Mills to have 25+ disposals
Essendon vs. GWS
April 9th
In another game that’s not as close in the market as we could expect, Essendon will clash with GWS as $1.49 favourites with Bet Nation.
Favouritism certainly isn’t unwarranted, but the quote is too short, given Essendon’s performance against the Saints last week, whereby they gave up five goals to one in the first term and never got a look in.
The Giants were slightly more impressive in their loss to the Blues, with an umpiring decision involving Stephen Coniglio sealing the deal for Carlton late in the fourth. Granted, the result should’ve been closer than 10 points if not for Carlton’s 9.20.
Suggested Bet:
Essendon 1-39 at $2.15
West Coast vs. Melbourne
April 9th
Death, taxes, and West Coast losing to Melbourne this weekend. At least that’s what the market is saying, with the Eagles currently trading at $8 compared to the Dees’ $1.08.
Nothing is going right for Adam Simpson again this season. The Eagles were left with no bench against the Dockers following injuries to Luke Shuey, Jamie Cripps, Jeremy McGovern and Alex Witherden.
On the other hand, the Demons were faultless in their 50-point win over the Swans, with six players kicking multiple goals and their midfield dominating under Brodie Grundy’s sole ruck work.
This could be as ugly as they come this season.
Suggested Bet:
Melbourne (-44.5) at $1.90
Geelong vs. Hawthorn
April 10th
One of the greatest rivalries in the modern era hits differently this Easter, with the winless Geelong taking on the 1-2 Hawthorn from the bottom two spots on the ladder.
The Cats still enter the match as $1.19 favourites, but it’s clearly not based on their performance against the Suns, where they went down by 19 points.
Hawthorn and Sam Mitchell breathed a sigh of relief after securing their first victory of the year against the Roos, but there’s no doubt Geelong will come out firing in front of a packed house at the MCG.
