AFL Best Bets, August 4
GWS vs. Sydney
Head-To-Head
Without question, it is one of the most important Sydney Derbies in its short history, and it’s the big, big sound from the west of the town that will enter as $1.75 favourites.
Having pieced together six wins on the trot, the Giants have launched into sixth spot on the ladder and two wins clear of their local rivals in 10th. They showed maturity we’ve not seen since 2019 when they came from 35 points down against the Dogs over the weekend and ran out five-point victors.
Tom Green and Jesse Hogan are both in the mix to make their return for the Giants, while the Swans will need to dig into their tall stocks once more and find ways to replace Lance Franklin (retired) and Dane Rampe (calf).
It’s hard to see the Swans slowing down the Giants Express as it approaches its first finals series under Adam Kingsley.
Suggested Bet:
GWS to win at $1.75
North Melbourne vs. Melbourne
Handicap
The Demons have hit their straps well over the past month with four successive victories over finals aspirants St Kilda, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Richmond.
Their most recent outing against the Tigers was arguably their most impressive as they piled on six goals in a barnstorming final term and ran out 32-point winners. Their final total of 130 was their highest score in Round 7 against North Melbourne and their third biggest for the season.
They defeated North by 90 points earlier in the year, and the distance between the two sides has only increased since.
With Max Gawn dominating in the ruck and Christian Petracca and Jack Viney collecting disposals at will, this should be another sizable victory for the Dees against a Kangaroos side that just lost to West Coast.
Suggested Bet:
Melbourne (-42.5) at $1.90
Adam Treloar (WB)
Anytime Goal
The hard-running Bulldogs midfielder has recaptured his best form in 2023, averaging 29.4 disposals, five tackles and almost six clearances.
More importantly, he’s found the scoreboard nine times, with three goals coming from his past two games.
It’s set to be a shootout against a Tigers team that’s given up at least 15 goals in three of its past five games, so expect Treloar to add to his tally at a juicy price of $1.80.
Suggested Bet:
A. Treloar at $1.80
Essendon vs. West Coast
Same Game Multi
It’s now or never for Brad Scott’s Essendon outfit as they attempt to snap a three-game losing streak and make a late play for finals.
The Bombers have slid eight spots on the ladder in those three weeks with losses to Geelong, the Dogs and Sydney, but will be buoyed by the fact they are still just one game outside the top eight.
They dispatched the Eagles by 50 points in Round 11 and will need a similar dose of disrespect if they have any chance of threatening those in the finals bracket.
- Leg 1: Essendon to win 40+
- Leg 2: N. Martin 25+ disposals
- Leg 3: T. Kelly 30+ disposals
- Leg 4: P. Wright 4+ goals
