AFL Best Bets, July 28
Richmond vs. Melbourne
Head-To-Head
Sunday afternoons don’t get any better than two Melbourne-based sides going head-to-head in front of a packed house at the MCG. And given it’s Richmond’s home game, one can expect a raucous crowd.
However, at $2.57 with Bet Nation, that’s where the positives are predicted to end for the Tigers, with the Dees looking to make it four wins on the trot.
Without Clayton Oliver roaming around the midfield, the Dees have kicked into gear by posting winning scores against St Kilda, Brisbane, and Adelaide. It took great courage from Simon Goodwin to drop Brodie Grundy to the VFL, but that call has paid off in spades as Max Gawn dominates the ruck dual and Christian Petracca stars up forward.
While the Tigers are on their own three-game run, they were poor against the Hawks last week and will find it much more difficult against a side that’s won the past three between them.
Suggested Bet:
Melbourne to win at $1.51
Gold Coast vs. Brisbane
Handicap
The Q-Clash is quickly becoming must-watch footy…unless you’re a Suns supporter.
Brisbane has been the superior team over the past few years, with 2023 no exception. Not only are they 11 spots above their Queensland rivals on the ladder, but the Lions ran out 43-point winners over the Suns earlier in the season.
Lachie Neale has recaptured his Brownlow Medal-winning ways, Josh Dunkley has returned to the team in elite form, and Joe Daniher is putting consistent games together as their leading man up forward and back-up ruck.
While it’s heartening to see Touk Miller back in the Suns’ team, the fact remains they’ve won just one game from their past four, including significant losses to GWS and Collingwood.
The Lions should cruise to a comfortable victory on the Gold Coast.
Suggested Bet:
Brisbane (-20.5) at $1.90
Marcus Bontempelli (WB)
Anytime Goal
The Bont has been on another level in 2023 and currently sits as third favourite for the Brownlow behind Nick Daicos and Christian Petracca at a juicy $7.
A large part of Bont’s return to the top is his around his ability to hit the scoreboard, having kicked 15 goals for the season. This includes nine from his past six games.
After slotting two against the Bombers last week, expect the Bont to step up again in a must-win clash with the Giants.
Suggested Bet:
M. Bontempelli at $1.44
Collingwood vs. Carlton
Same Game Multi
A genuine blockbuster to kick things off in Round 20, the high-flying Magpies will be out to slow down a Carlton side that’s won five in a row and worked their way back into ninth.
The Blues will be without Sam Walsh (hamstring) and Jack Silvagni (knee) for the must-win clash, and there’s a chance Patrick Cripps and Adam Cerra are underdone.
As for the Pies, they’re at full strength following their victory over Port Adelaide, with VFL players lining up left, right and centre to try and break into the side.
Veterans such as Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams and Steele Sidebottom are back in sensational form, feeding off the youthful exuberance of the Daicos boys and Jordan De Goey. They’re just that good.
- Leg 1: Collingwood to win
- Leg 2: Over 159.5 points
- Leg 3: J. De Goey 25+ disposals
- Leg 4: T. Adams anytime goalscorer
