AFL Best Bets, July 6
Richmond vs. Sydney
Head-To-Head
There’s a lot of value to be found in the head-to-head markets this week, but we’ve settled on Richmond’s $1.70 quote as they attempt to bounce back into form against the Swans.
While the Tigers delivered their most humiliating performance of the season during last week’s 81-point loss to the Lions, Andrew McQualter will undoubtedly put it down to a one-off blemish as they continue their late push for finals. Before the Gabba massacre, the Tigers had strong form lines with three wins on the trot against GWS (away), Fremantle (away) and St Kilda (home).
Dustin Martin will return after missing last week’s game with flu-like symptoms in a massive boost for the home side.
The Swans had their chances in their 54-all draw against Geelong but have lost both games at the MCG this season by an average of 44.5 points.
Suggested Bet:
Richmond to win at $1.70
Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood
Handicap
Can the ladder-leading Magpies replicate their incredible form at Marvel Stadium? That’s the biggest question facing Craig McCrae’s men this weekend as they prepare to take on the Bulldogs in their test at the venue for the season.
The Magpies have been flawless in the opening 16 rounds, with 13 wins and a percentage of 138.8. Furthermore, they were nothing short of relentless against the Gold Coast on Saturday, with 11 goals to one in a dominant opening half.
Jordan De Goey is the significant inclusion after serving a three-match suspension as he rejoins Brownlow Medal fancy Nick Daicos, Josh Daicos, Scott Pendlebury and Tom Mitchell. Scary.
Suggested Bet:
Collingwood (-10.5) at $1.90
Jack Steele (St Kilda)
25+ disposals
After bursting into the 2023 season with three games of 28+ in the first four games, the Saints’ skipper hasn’t quite reached those same heights since, with just one additional game of 25+.
However, with 24, 21, 21 and 22 over the past month, Steele has been working his way back into form alongside Jack Sinclair and Brad Crouch.
With Melbourne’s propensity to allow opposition midfielders to run free, we’re happy to take the $2.10 on offer for Steele in what should be a hard-fought clash.
Suggested Bet:
Jack Steele at $2.10
Brisbane Lions vs. West Coast
Same Game Multi
There are no two ways about this; it could be ugly.
Brisbane’s form at home has been outstanding this season, capped off with an 81-point thumping of Richmond last weekend. Lachie Neale is back in Brownlow-winning form, and they are putting scores on the board with more points kicked than any other side at 97.9ppg.
West Coast improved in last week’s loss to St Kilda, but this will differ entirely. Brace yourselves.
- Brisbane to win (-81.5)
- L. Neale 30+ disposals
- Z. Bailey 2+ goals
- Over 186.5 points
