AFL Best Bets, June 22
Geelong vs. Melbourne
Head-To-Head
With three fewer matches than usual, the hunt for value may take a little longer this week, but we’re happy to take the $1.84 about Melbourne in their clash with Geelong.
While the Cats have long been a force at GMHBA Stadium, Melbourne’s current form warrants our attention after recently defeating Collingwood and Carlton as they keep their top two hopes alive. Their King’s Birthday thriller over the Pies snapped an eight-game winning streak and could have been significantly more than four points had they worn their kicking boots, 8.18 (66).
Led by Steven May, Jake Lever and Christian Salem, the Dees have been a defensive juggernaut this season, allowing just 106 points against in their last two matches.
With the Cats winning just one from their past five games and one of their past three against Melbourne, $1.84 looks a very enticing proposition.
Suggested Bet:
Melbourne to win at $1.84
Sydney vs. West Coast
Handicap
The West Coast Eagles are low-hanging fruit at this point, but their injury concerns and lack of talent have given us every reason to bet against them on a weekly basis.
While they could welcome three premiership defenders back into the fold – Jeremy McGovern, Tom Barrass and Liam Duggan – but McGovern will need to overcome an illness that kept him from training earlier in the week.
Despite missing Isaac Heeney and Lance Franklin from their forward line, the Swans were courageous in their 16-point loss against Brisbane at the Gabba. Throw Heeney back in and possibly Buddy, and we like the Swans by 10 goals.
Suggested Bet:
Sydney (-50.5) at $1.90
Nic Martin (Essendon)
25+ disposals
The talented wingman has thrived in his second season of AFL, averaging 22 disposals and kicking nine goals as a shining light of Brad Scott’s unit.
More importantly, his last month has been phenomenal with possession totals of 26, 31, 21 and 30.
This gives us a whole heap of confidence going into a game against the out-of-form Dockers, and we’re more than happy to take the $2.40 on offer while Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish take the short quotes.
Suggested Bet:
Nic Martin at $2.40
Collingwood vs. Adelaide
Same Game Multi
Collingwood and Adelaide will be fit and firing after their respective byes, with the Magpies hoping to re-take the top spot on the ladder after giving it up to Port Adelaide.
The Crows were outstanding in their 122-point demolition of the Eagles two weeks ago, but they haven’t beaten the Pies in three outings. Further, it’s the first time since Round 2 last season they’ll get a run on the MCG.
Coming off a King’s Birthday loss to the Demons, playing for the top spot and with the Crows’ away record of 0-5 plaguing them this season, this is Collingwood’s to win.
- Collingwood to win
- Over 166.5
- N. Daicos 30+ disposals
- I. Rankine 2+ goals
