AFL Best Bets, June 15
Carlton vs. Gold Coast
Head-To-Head
Despite losing seven of their past eight games, the market has still sided in Carlton’s favour ahead of their Round 14 clash with the Gold Coast.
Priced at $1.80, the general principle of ‘they need to win at some point’ seems to override the Suns’ current form after winning three of their last four, including wins over the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide Crows.
With the week off allowing Sean Lemmens to recover from a hamstring injury, the Suns will only strengthen from their last win over the Crows. George Hewett and Marc Pittonet will return for the Blues, but the $2.05 on offer for the Suns is far too generous to pass up.
Suggested Bet:
Suns to win at $2.05
Richmond vs. St Kilda
Handicap
One of the best match-ups of the round pits the Saints against the Tigers at the MCG. If this game was played at any other venue, the Saints would be considered severe overs in both the head-to-head and handicap markets.
Alas, the Ross Lyon defence has been on song over the past three weeks with an average score of 77 against. Their performance last weekend against the Swans was the highlight as they allowed 66 points, while Max King did the damage up forward with three goals.
The Saints have continued to find ways to win so far this season, and while they might struggle in front of an MCG crowd, we can’t ignore the fact they’re only outside the top four on percentage.
Suggested Bet:
St Kilda (+5.5) at $1.90
Brisbane vs. Sydney
Totals
Brisbane will attempt to bounce back into form after losing their previous two games, with their 25-point loss to the Hawks a lowlight on an otherwise positive season.
One of the most telling statistics is that the Lions have kicked more than 87 points just once in the past month (against the Gold Coast), while the Swans have hit the same mark once in their past five.
The Lions should win this one comfortably, but scoring will be a premium for both sides.
Suggested Bet:
-172.5 total points at $1.88
Stephen Coniglio (GWS)
25+ disposals
Stephen Coniglio has taken his game to another level since handing over the captaincy reins to Toby Greene.
The Giants’ midfielder has played all 13 games this season and accumulated 25 or more disposals on 12 occasions. He’s racked up 30+ four times and kicked goals in four games.
The Dockers allowed six Richmond players to have 25+ in last week’s loss, and we’d expect the Giants’ former skipper to be let loose on Saturday afternoon.
Suggested Bet:
Stephen Coniglio at $1.64
Port Adelaide vs. Geelong
Same Game Multi
Is any AFL player operating at a higher rate than Zak Butters? The Port Adelaide midfielder had another 31 disposals in his side’s win over the Bulldogs, making it 25+ in every game since Round Four.
Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis will lead the Power in their home clash with the Cats and attempt to record their 11th straight win.
Geelong is fighting for a top-eight spot and will be refreshed after their bye, but their form line (three losses from four games) doesn’t fill us with the confidence they can match it with the best of the best.
- Port Adelaide 1-39
- Over 167.5
- Z. Butters 25+ disposals
- T. Hawkins 2+ goals
