AFL Best Bets, April 21
Carlton vs. St Kilda
Head-To-Head
One of the games of the round pits Carlton against St Kilda after both sides suffered losses during Gather Round. This can present serious value in the market, and St Kilda – currently $1.87 with Bet Nation – is the type of price we’re looking for.
Despite losing their first game of the season, Ross Lyon’s ladder leaders were far from embarrassed during their six-point loss to Collingwood.
The good news for the Saints is that their skipper, Jack Steele, and star forward, Tim Membrey, are both set to return from injury this weekend. Anthony Caminiti’s suspension is the only notable omission, giving the Saints their most consistent week-to-week line-up for the year.
Carlton lowered their navy blue colours for the first time this season when Adelaide blew them away to the tune of 56 points. Unfortunately for Michael Voss, Adam Saad will miss with a hamstring complaint. We’ve seen the Blues get our hopes up before, only to come crashing down after the season’s first month. While that might not happen here, their $1.94 appears to be slightly overs.
Suggested Bet:
St Kilda to win at $1.87
GWS vs. Brisbane
Handicap
Are the Giants as bad as their +20.5 handicap against the Lions suggests? We’re saying no.
While they’ve won just two games and sit below Fremantle on the ladder, the Giants haven’t been blown out of the water in any of their losses, going down to WCE (19), Carlton (10) and Essendon (13). And they just held off Hawthorn by two points, but it should’ve been much more with 17 behinds.
The Lions have indeed shown more over the past two weeks against North Melbourne and Collingwood, but Chris Fagan’s men are still to prove they can win at their opponent’s home ground. Until then, the critics will be out.
Suggested Bet:
GWS Giants (+20.5) at $1.90
Hawthorn vs. Adelaide
Total Points
It’s back to the University of Tasmania for the Hawks this weekend as they host Adelaide on Saturday.
The Crows are rightfully favourites to run away with the win, having won their last three games against Carlton, Fremantle, and Port. And they’ve done them all in style, with scores of 118, 111 and 117, thanks to Izak Rankine, Tex Walker, Darcy Fogarty, and Josh Rachele.
The Hawks have been less impressive but did win their only game in Tassie against North, 80-61. They’ve averaged 83.5 at the venue in their last four games and haven’t fallen below 67.
Suggested Bet:
+173.5 total points at $1.85
Gold Coast vs North Melbourne
25+ Disposals
North Melbourne will be looking for their third win of the season when they travel to the Gold Coast on Sunday afternoon.
There’s something about high possession games and Sundays, so we’re expecting Jack Ziebell to have a day out in North’s defensive 50, having already accumulated three games of 26+ from his five this year.
He touched the ball 24 times in their 75-point loss to the Lions over the weekend. So with a bit more control across half-back and a closer result predicted, Ziebell should put his hand up for plenty of the pill.
