AFL Tips and Previews, April 6-7
Brisbane vs. Collingwood
April 6th
Round Four of AFL action will kick off with the $2.08 Brisbane hosting in-form Collingwood at the Gabba on Thursday night.
It’s rare to see the Lions beyond even money at home, but a second loss from three games means the doubters have come out in force. One week after defeating the Demons (also at the Gabba), the Lions were a shadow of themselves as they went down to the Western Bulldogs by 14 points. They were simply outplayed by the Dogs, down 49 for possession and losing the centre clearances 12-4. Lachie Neale fought hard for 31 disposals, but their forward line was a mess, with Eric Hipwood and Joe Daniher combining for just one goal.
On the other hand, Collingwood is the form team of the competition after they made it three consecutive wins with their 14-point victory over Richmond. In wet and slippery conditions, the Pies proved they’re a class above, with 22 scoring shots to nine in the first three quarters. They will be nervous about the ruck battle on Thursday night after losing Darcy Cameron to a knee injury for 8-10 weeks and Mason Cox recovering from a hematoma.
Brisbane has already hit back at home after a disappointing loss once this season (see Port Adelaide), but Collingwood is a different beast if they can get their frantic, fast-moving game going. However, the Lions should take advantage of Collingwood’s lack of tall options if conditions suit.
Suggested Bet:
J. Daicos anytime goal scorer at $1.62
North Melbourne vs. Carlton
April 7th
After two consecutive losses to the Western Bulldogs on Good Friday, North Melbourne will now host Carlton in the marquee fixture.
The Kangaroos have lost by a combined 194 points in their two Good Friday games over the last two years, and the market suggests it could be another rout with the Roos currently $3.80 with Bet Nation.
North is coming off a disappointing performance against Hawthorn, losing by 19 points and giving Sam Mitchell’s side their first win of the season. They lost the clearance count 43-24, with Harry Sheezel (26) their only player with more than 21 disposals. Hawthorn had 10. They will be without key defender Griffin Logue after the AFL Tribunal upheld his one-game ban for rough conduct. This will hurt their chances of curbing the influence of Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay.
Carlton will be buoyant ahead of this clash, having secured third spot on the ladder with a tough 10-point triumph over GWS. Inaccuracy in front of goal destroyed the Blues’ chances of a percentage booster (9.20), but 42 disposals from Patrick Cripps and 39 from Sam Docherty led the charge as they won almost every major statistical category.
It’s not a lot of value in the head-to-head markets, but there’s certainly a lot of confidence that Carlton will get the job done.
