NBA Futures Tracker, Thursday 30th November
Most Valuable Player
Nikola Jokic
The trend for MVP tends to discriminate against those who have climbed the mountain before. High achievements mean high expectations, but even with that in mind, we may be about to see a repeat of the recent past.
Nikola Jokic has won the past two league MVP awards and has not featured in the top few lines for betting this year. Even now, he is still a relative outsider according to markets despite what may well be his best season yet.
His numbers would suggest he is on course to accomplish a rare three-peat. 23 points per game, 9.8 rebounds and 8.8 assists are MVP candidate numbers by anyone’s measure. While he hasn’t had to do it on his own as in previous years, he is still having an exceptional season and deserves to be spoken about as a genuine chance.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is another who may be easily dismissed by some purely because he has won the award twice before. With a career-high scoring average, the Greek Freak is more than mounting his case and sits level with Luca Doncic as the favourite even though Doncic may have the novelty factor affecting his claims, while Steph Curry (who has also won the award twice), is shooting as well as he ever has but may be hampered by the fact his team, the Warriors, are performing far below expectations.
SUGGESTED BET:
Nikola Jokic to win the MVP at $23
Defensive Player Of The Year
Brook Lopez
The old favourites top the market for this one, but there have been some factual claims from a few new contenders.
Brook Lopez may be the second fiddle behind Giannis Antetokounmpo when it comes to Milwaukee, but his efforts this year have been nothing short of incredible. Lopez leads the league in blocked shots (always a key indicator for a good defender) with 2.9 and is also managing to hold opponents to a low shooting percentage.
Another option worth considering is Jarrett Allen, who has been a critical reason behind Cleveland’s rise this season. He is racking up the numbers both in blocking and rebounding and has a stranglehold on opponents’ shooting, keeping them to under 42 per cent. Allen might not have the history and reputation of some of the favourites in this race, but he is well worth putting some money on, as his odds will shorten if his form continues.
SUGGESTED BET:
Brook Lopez at $3.30
Most Improved Player
Bol Bol
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an unbackable favourite for this one, and it’s no surprise after one of the most impressive breakout years seen in recent history. He is still an enticing prospect for the MVP award but needs a bit more form to be a serious threat. He is likelier to be crowned Most Improved, but most would hesitate to take a $1.26 price after a quarter of the season.
Desmond Bane hasn’t drifted out as hoped with his recent injury and is still at the $19 mark. Rather than load up on him, it might pay to look further down the lines at another player creating some Most Improved buzz in Bol Bol.
Bol has relished his move from Denver to Orlando, playing a pivotal role for a Magic team with little else to get excited about. He is averaging nearly four times as many points and rebounds as he has over the past three seasons, which statistically would suggest he is four times as good a player as he has been and, thus, vastly improved. There is still a heap of value in Bol, and it might be wise to put a penny or two his way.
SUGGESTED BET:
Bol Bol at $36
Western Conference Champions
New Orleans
We are a quarter of the way through the year, and the market for the west is looking vastly different to the standings. Golden State is second on the line of betting despite its horrendous start to the season, and while there has been a slight resurgence over the past couple of weeks, the Warriors have plenty of ground to make up if they are to make the finals.
Same too with the LA Clippers, who are favourites despite a raft of injuries and questionable performances.
On the flip side, there is value to be had, knowing 20 or so games played is hardly a small sample size. New Orleans is sitting in third position and finally has some continuity in its team, particularly star Zion Williamson. The Pelicans have posted some big scores and beaten some solid teams, yet are still priced a long way off where their form has been. Consider backing them to make the leap, as well as Sacramento, who are well into triple figures on the market despite showing on numerous occasions that they have what it takes.
SUGGESTED BET:
New Orleans at $23
Eastern Conference Champions
Cleveland
Similar to the West, there are some significant discrepancies between the markets and the standings, and several teams are ripe for the picking.
Brooklyn has been a disaster right from the start this season, but their big names have kept them in the hunt. How they can all work together for the remainder of the season is yet to be seen. Still, it is hard to see Kevin Durant develop patience, Ben Simmons develop self-belief, and Kyrie Irving develops an ability to keep his head down. Could you steer clear of the Nets on the third line of betting and instead look a little further down to the underrated Cleveland?
The Cavs have only recently put together an eight-game winning streak and sit deservedly in the third position. They might have a young roster, but we have seen youth succeed in the past, and there is no reason Cleveland can’t do that.
For a bit of a throw at the stumps, though, the most significant value compared to stat lines is with Indiana. The Pacers are fourth in the East at the moment but dead last in the market. They might not actually go all the way, but $301 is a price too good to ignore for a team that has a 12-8 record.
