AFL Grand Final, Tips and Preview

An exceptional AFL season comes to its conclusion, with two of the mainstays of the competition battling for the premiership.

Geelong and Sydney are the most dependable teams of the modern era, rarely suffering through slumps. Each has tasted premiership success a couple of times, Grand Final defeats a couple of times this century, and both are well aware of the stark contrast between the despair of failure and the jubilation of success.

Geelong has been far and away the best team in the AFL this season, securing the minor premiership and winning through. The Cats have carefully managed what an ageing list is and go into this week with the oldest team ever to set foot on a field as solid flag favourites.

Much of their power has come from tall forwards Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron, and their performances will be vital. But the Swans have matched up well on both players in recent years and won’t be letting either get off the chain.

One wildcard up forward for the Cats is Gary Rohan, who has been impressive this finals series, shrugging off a reputation as an underperformer come September. Rohan is the type who only needs a five-minute burst to swing a game, and it could be a headache for his former team.

At the other end, Tom Stewart drives everything from the back half and has a tenacious approach to the contest. The Swans need to put work into him to make sure he doesn’t set up a win.

Sydney brings a consistent approach to the contest, but their star power looks slightly different from years past. Callum Mills and Isaac Heeney safely sit among the competition’s elite and should feature prominently. At the same time, Nick Blakey and Ollie Florent have the dash and style to carve up any opposition.

There is some concern about their goal-kicking ability. Lance Franklin is still Buddy, but he’s a 35-year-old Buddy and can’t be counted on to kick a bag. Sam Reid may not recover from injury time, testing their depth up forward. The danger man for them around goals is Tom Papley, who kicked three goals in last week’s win over Collingwood and may draw Tom Atkins, who has been a revelation for Geelong this year.

The markets offer plenty of value leading into this one. Grand Finals are usually low-scoring affairs, and it’s always the smart bet to go the under when it comes to total points.

The Norm Smith Medal is wide open with Patrick Dangerfield the favourite as he looks to fill the one blank chapter of his illustrious career. Other options with value include Stewart, Blakey, Atkins, Chad Warner and Mark Blicavs.

As for the match result, the Swans are peaking at the right time and have plenty of experience in getting the job done on the big stage.

But it’s Geelong who have everything going for them – a close to full-strength team (save for Max Holmes’ injury), a point to prove after a recent period of finishing late in finals but falling short of a flag, and the indisputable form line of 15 straight wins.

It’s the Cats in this one, with star performances across the ground.